Collections Intelligence

SMS Effectiveness in Ghana Collections

Does Reducing SMS Hurt Repayment? A Data-Driven Analysis.

February 11, 2026 · Data: May 2025 – January 2026

❌ CLAIM: "Calls replace SMS" — FALSE

SMS and calls are complements, not substitutes. Cutting SMS by 76% in August 2025 and compensating with 15× more calls did NOT maintain repayment. The data proves adding even 1 SMS to heavily-called borrowers lifts repayment by ~15 percentage points.

📉
−76%
SMS Cut (Aug 2025)
📞
15×
Call Increase
💬
+15pp
SMS Lift (1st SMS)
💰
950×
Estimated ROI
1

What Happened to SMS Volumes?

Monthly Collections SMS vs Calls (IVR)

August 2025: SMS slashed 76%, calls ramped 15× to compensate. SMS partially restored Sep–Dec, then dropped again in Jan 2026.

Successful SMS IVR Calls
2

The Dose-Response: More SMS = Higher Repayment

For borrowers receiving 10+ calls in the first 14 days (the hardest cases), how does adding SMS change repayment?

October 2025 — Normal SMS Month (620K)

0 SMS
22.0%
baseline
1 SMS
33.9%
+11.9pp
2 SMS
41.0%
+19.0pp
3+ SMS
39.4%
+17.4pp

December 2025 — High SMS Month (934K)

0 SMS
18.0%
baseline
1 SMS
32.5%
+14.5pp
2 SMS
34.5%
+16.5pp
3+ SMS
41.4%
+23.4pp
💡
The pattern is consistent across all months: for 10+ call borrowers, 0 SMS = ~18–22% repayment. Adding just 1 SMS nearly doubles it to 33–40%. This proves SMS and calls are complements — a missed call transfers zero information, while an SMS leaves a persistent message.
3

Why "Calls Replace SMS" Is Wrong

📞
Phone Calls
  • Requires borrower to answer
  • Missed call = zero information
  • No persistent record
  • High cost per attempt
💬
SMS
  • Always delivered
  • Read at borrower's convenience
  • Persistent — re-readable
  • ~GHS 0.05 per message
⚠️
In August 2025, 15× more calls were needed to barely match the repayment rate achieved with SMS. The aggregate rate (48.6%) was only marginally above pre-cut levels (48.1%) — despite massively higher call investment. Cost per recovered loan likely increased significantly.
Estimated ROI of Restoring SMS
~950×
Return on investment for adding SMS to 10+ call borrowers
+327
Additional Repayments / Month
GHS 130,800
Additional Collections
GHS 137
Cost of 2,743 SMS

Based on Oct 2025 cohort: 2,743 loans with 10+ calls and 0 SMS. If each received 1 SMS, repayment jumps from 22% → 33.9% = 327 extra repayments at avg GHS 400 loan size.

4

Recommendations

1
Restore SMS to ~930K/month — match Dec 2025 levels. The first SMS has the highest marginal impact.
2
Prioritize 10+ call borrowers — this segment gets the biggest lift from SMS. 0 SMS = 22%, 1 SMS = 34%.
3
Don't reduce calls — SMS and calls are complementary. The optimal strategy is both, not either/or.
4
A/B test the new DPD v3 plan — the revised 20-trigger interaction plan builds on these findings with USSD for early DPD and WhatsApp for DPD 14+.
5

Caveats